The point spread is the most common bet in football and basketball. If you’ve ever heard someone say “they won but they didn’t cover,” this is what they meant. Here’s exactly how it works.
What Is a Point Spread?
A point spread is a margin set by oddsmakers to level the playing field between two unevenly matched teams. Instead of just picking a winner, you’re betting on whether a team wins (or loses) by a specific margin.
Example: The Chiefs are -7 against the Raiders. To win a bet on Kansas City, they must win by more than 7 points. If you bet the Raiders at +7, they can lose by up to 6 points and you still win. A win by exactly 7 is a push (your money back).
How the Spread Is Set
Oddsmakers don’t just set the spread to predict the exact margin of victory. They set it to split public betting action evenly between both sides, so the book collects the vig (juice) from both sides and profits regardless of the outcome.
The opening line is an estimate. It shifts based on where bets come in. If too much money piles on one side, the spread moves to attract action on the other. This is why the spread on Monday is often different from the spread on Sunday.
Covering vs. Not Covering
“Covering the spread” means a team won by more than the spread (or lost by less). A team can cover and still lose the game, and they can win the game and fail to cover. The game result and the bet result are separate things.
Classic example: The Lakers are -10 at home and win 108-101. They won the game. They lost the spread bet. Anyone on the Lakers -10 gets nothing back.
Why Favorites Don’t Always Win ATS
Favorites cover the spread roughly 50% of the time over a long sample. This isn’t a coincidence; it’s by design. The book’s goal is balance, not accuracy. Favorites are often overpriced because the public naturally wants to bet the better team, which inflates their price relative to reality.
In the NFL, public teams like the Cowboys and Packers get more money bet on them than their actual probability of covering warrants. Books shade those lines a half-point or full point in response. This is why underdogs and divisional dogs often outperform expectations against the spread.
Examples Across Sports
NFL: Patriots -6.5 vs. Jets. Patriots need to win by 7 or more. Jets bettors collect if New York keeps it within 6 points (or wins outright).
NBA: Lakers -9.5 vs. Thunder. A Lakers win by 10 covers. A win by 9 doesn’t. The half-point eliminates the push scenario.
NCAAB: Duke -15.5 vs. Virginia. College basketball spreads run larger because talent gaps are bigger. A 15-point Duke win means Virginia bettors cash.
Spread Betting vs. Moneylines
The spread brings both teams’ prices close to -110 (bet $110 to win $100). That vig is how books profit. Moneylines price teams based on win probability, so a heavy favorite might be -400 while the underdog is +300. Each has its place; see our full guide at How to Read Sports Betting Odds for a deeper breakdown.
Bottom Line
The spread is everywhere in sports betting for a reason: it makes lopsided matchups interesting and keeps both sides of a bet valuable. Understanding how it moves and why favorites are priced the way they are is the first step toward betting it profitably.